Blu-Ray the Next Laserdisc, Not the Next Big Thing

Will Blu-Ray be "laserdisc" while DVD is "vhs"? Sony seems to think (or hope) that Blu-Ray is going to capture 50% of the DVD market by the end of 2008 (article at alleyinsider.com). Machines are more expensive, movies are more expensive, and less movies are available on Blu-Ray compared to DVD. Why would the majority of disc buyers shift to Blu-Ray when they think DVD is good enough? I don't think it will happen. I think Blu-Ray will find a nice niche with people who want the very best quality, but DVD is going to be good enough for many people. All Blu-Ray is going to be for the next few years is what laserdisc was for most of the 80's and early 90's, a format for movie lovers and collectors.